What do securities companies say about a spectacular breakthrough of the market in the spring opening session of the year

Posted: 11-02-2019

In the spring session of the year of earth pig 2019, Vietnam stock market has made a spectacular breakthrough when it increased by more than 17 points to 926.1 points.

Domestic stock market has returned to trading after a long holiday and had a jubilant spring opening session. Green maintained throughout the session and Vn-Index when closing, increased more than 17 points to 926.1 points. Market breadth was also very good when the number of gainers was 345, while that of losers was only 153. The spring opening session on February 11 was also the first day to operate new VN30 index and this index had 25 gainers and only 3 losers.

The order-matching value in the first session of the New Year reached VND 2,300 billion, equivalent to ETF's internal structural session before the holiday. Regarding trading of foreign investors, they were not really active in the first day of the New Year but still slightly net purchasing nearly VND 4 billion, showing a positive signal.

With important changes in the first session of the New Year, experts from many securities companies have shared a view that the market would continue to prosper in the next period.

Vn-Index increased strongly in the first session of the New Year

Increase in consensus in many sectors to stimulate participation of cash flow

Judging from the first trading session in the year of the earth pig 2019, Vndirect Securities Corporation believed the fact that VN-Index officially surpassed the resistant level of 920 points created new expectations so that the cash flow willingly entered the market. Although liquidity has not really improved, but with the increase of the indexes as well as the increase in consensus in many sectors, it would create stimulus participation of cash flow.

VNDIRECT believes that uptrend of indexes is still favorable as it is in line with major recovery of the marginal and newly emerging markets while negative factors such as USD, interest rate, and trade war temporarily calm down.

However, VNDIRECT still considers this a short-term rally. At the moment, the reasonable strategy is to hold stocks that have been purchased to increase profits and avoid bull trap of excitement of the index.

Investors were optimistic and expecting point’s uptrend of the market.

Sharing the same view, Bao Viet Securities Company (BVSC) assesses that investors are quite optimistic and expecting point’s uptrend of the market after the long holiday.

Long-legged doji candlesticks with a gap upon price increase formed in February 11th might be a signal for possibility that the index would continue to move positively in the next sessions this week.

BVSC thinks that after crossing SMA50, corresponding to around 916 points, the price line is likely to approach the next resistance zone, SMA100, corresponding to 933-938 points. The price line breaking out of horizontal price channel lasted in the weeks before Tet might open up new volatility trend in the direction of gaining in the market in the short term.

The uptrend of the market is expected to continue to be led by banking stocks and several Bluechips such as HPG, FPT, REE, VJC, etc. Besides, the cash flow might lead the interest in oil, gas, construction and several real estate stocks. BVSC assessed the resistance zone of Vn-Index at 933-938 points and 950-960 points.

Note liquidity factor, be careful with bull trap

Also with a positive view on the market, SHS said that market's uptrend might be maintained in 1-2 more sessions before encountering fluctuations due to selling pressure in the last sessions.
Liquidity would need to be observed in the next sessions and if the liquidity remains above the average level of 20 sessions, market's uptrend is expected to continue with the next strong resistance level around 955 points corresponding to the daily MA200 line; On the other hand, weak liquidity would be a worrying sign.

In SHS forecast on the next trading session on February 12, investor's excitement could help VN-Index continue its point’s uptrend with the nearest target of 930 points. Investors who purchased when VN-Index surpassed 920 points in session on February 12 should not avoid bull trap and could purchase more if the market retests successfully at 920 points.


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